全国肿瘤防止研究办公室、国家肿瘤登记中心陈万青主任带领其团队开展的一项我国癌症患病率的研究，其结果最近在线发表在欧洲的Cancer Letters杂志，系我国首次发布我国居民癌症患病数据。结果显示，我国5年内诊断的癌症患者目前尚存活的人数估计为749万，其中男性患者368万，女性患者381万。女性乳腺癌患者最多，达102万，其次是结直肠癌，肺癌，胃癌和食管癌，这5个常见癌症占总数的56.1%.城市中每10万人中就有666个人5年中诊断为癌症，这个数字在农村是10万分之440.

    以往癌症负担经常用到的是癌症发病率。 癌症发病率一般用作描述癌症的分布特征，通过比较不同人群的发病率来帮助确定可能的病因，探讨发病因素，提出病因假说，评价防止措施的效果。癌症患病率， 也称现患率，是指某特定时间内总人口中癌症新旧病例之和所占的比例。对慢性病进行现况调查，患病率是较常用的指标。患病率通常用来表示疾病的发生或流行情 况，可为医疗设施规划，估计医院床位周转，卫生设施及人力的需要量，医疗质量的评估和医疗费用的投入等提供科学的依据。

    我国以人群为基础的肿瘤监测系统逐步完善，越来越多的数据结果在癌症控制政策制定和癌症研究中发挥着重要作用。此次研究使用了我国最新的177个肿瘤登记点的发病数据和生存率数据，通过模型计算得到较为准确的现患情况。

    National estimates of cancer prevalence in China, 2011

    Rongshou Zheng Hongmei Zeng Siwei Zhang Tianhui Chen Wanqing Chen

    Published Online: October 09, 2015

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canlet.2015.10.003

    Highlights

    The first systematic estimation of cancer prevalence in China.

    We estimated that about 7.49 million persons alive in China had received a diagnosis of cancer within the previous five years in 2011.

    Breast cancer in females and stomach cancer in males were the two most prevalent malignant diseases.

    The cancer burdens showed difference between urban areas and rural areas in China.

    Abstract

    Objective

    Little is known about nationwide cancer prevalence in China. This paper aimed at assessing5-year cancer prevalence in China for 25 major cancers.

    Materials and methods

    Incidence data were estimated using data from 177 cancer registries and covering 175 million populations. Survival data from 17 cancer registries diagnosed during 2003-2005 and followed until31December2010.Standardizedprotocols for data collection and validation were adopted. Cancer prevalence for 25 major sites was estimated from year-specific incidence rates and survival probabilities according to standardized formula.

    Results

    Estimated 5-year prevalence for all cancers combined in 2011 in China was 7.49 million （3.68 million for men and 3.81 million for women）。 Cancer prevalence estimates for 5-year varied by cancer sites, ranging from 11.9 thousands for testicular cancer to 1.02 million for women breast cancer. Those most prevalent five cancers （breast, colorectal, lung stomach and esophageal cancers） covered 56.1% of cancer burden in China. The proportion for 5-year prevalence was higher in urban areas compared to rural areas （666 per 100,000 versus 440 per 100,000）， while cancer prevalence estimates were higher for women compared to men, with the men/women ratio of 5-year cancer prevalence reaching 0.96.

    Conclusions

    This paper provides the first systematic **ysis on 5-year cancer prevalence for 25 major cancers in China in 2011, which may serve as a baseline for assessment of the overall effectiveness of cancer health care. The huge number of cancer survivors requires resource allocation to improve health care programs and primary prevention, especially in rural areas.